SPDN: An Inexpensive Way To Profit When The S&P 500 Falls

Summary
SPDN is not the largest or oldest way to short the S&P 500, but it’s a solid choice.
This ETF uses a variety of financial instruments to target a return opposite that of the S&P 500 Index.
SPDN’s 0.49% Expense Ratio is nearly half that of the larger, longer-tenured -1x Inverse S&P 500 ETF.
Details aside, the potential continuation of the equity bear market makes single-inverse ETFs an investment segment investor should be familiar with.
We rate SPDN a Strong Buy because we believe the risks of a continued bear market greatly outweigh the possibility of a quick return to a bull market.
Put a gear stick into R position, (Reverse).
Birdlkportfolio

By Rob Isbitts

Summary
The S&P 500 is in a bear market, and we don’t see a quick-fix. Many investors assume the only way to navigate a potentially long-term bear market is to hide in cash, day-trade or “just hang in there” while the bear takes their retirement nest egg.

The Direxion Daily S&P 500® Bear 1X ETF (NYSEARCA:SPDN) is one of a class of single-inverse ETFs that allow investors to profit from down moves in the stock market.

SPDN is an unleveraged, liquid, low-cost way to either try to hedge an equity portfolio, profit from a decline in the S&P 500, or both. We rate it a Strong Buy, given our concern about the intermediate-term outlook for the global equity market.

Strategy
SPDN keeps it simple. If the S&P 500 goes up by X%, it should go down by X%. The opposite is also expected.

Proprietary ETF Grades
Offense/Defense: Defense

Segment: Inverse Equity

Sub-Segment: Inverse S&P 500

Correlation (vs. S&P 500): Very High (inverse)

Expected Volatility (vs. S&P 500): Similar (but opposite)

Holding Analysis
SPDN does not rely on shorting individual stocks in the S&P 500. Instead, the managers typically use a combination of futures, swaps and other derivative instruments to create a portfolio that consistently aims to deliver the opposite of what the S&P 500 does.

Strengths
SPDN is a fairly “no-frills” way to do what many investors probably wished they could do during the first 9 months of 2022 and in past bear markets: find something that goes up when the “market” goes down. After all, bonds are not the answer they used to be, commodities like gold have, shall we say, lost their luster. And moving to cash creates the issue of making two correct timing decisions, when to get in and when to get out. SPDN and its single-inverse ETF brethren offer a liquid tool to use in a variety of ways, depending on what a particular investor wants to achieve.

Weaknesses
The weakness of any inverse ETF is that it does the opposite of what the market does, when the market goes up. So, even in bear markets when the broader market trend is down, sharp bear market rallies (or any rallies for that matter) in the S&P 500 will cause SPDN to drop as much as the market goes up.

Opportunities
While inverse ETFs have a reputation in some circles as nothing more than day-trading vehicles, our own experience with them is, pardon the pun, exactly the opposite! We encourage investors to try to better-understand single inverse ETFs like SPDN. While traders tend to gravitate to leveraged inverse ETFs (which actually are day-trading tools), we believe that in an extended bear market, SPDN and its ilk could be a game-saver for many portfolios.

Threats
SPDN and most other single inverse ETFs are vulnerable to a sustained rise in the price of the index it aims to deliver the inverse of. But that threat of loss in a rising market means that when an investor considers SPDN, they should also have a game plan for how and when they will deploy this unique portfolio weapon.

Proprietary Technical Ratings
Short-Term Rating (next 3 months): Strong Buy

Long-Term Rating (next 12 months): Buy

Conclusions
ETF Quality Opinion
SPDN does what it aims to do, and has done so for over 6 years now. For a while, it was largely-ignored, given the existence of a similar ETF that has been around much longer. But the more tenured SPDN has become, the more attractive it looks as an alternative.

ETF Investment Opinion

SPDN is rated Strong Buy because the S&P 500 continues to look as vulnerable to further decline. And, while the market bottomed in mid-June, rallied, then waffled since that time, our proprietary macro market indicators all point to much greater risk of a major decline from this level than a fast return to bull market glory. Thus, SPDN is at best a way to exploit and attack the bear, and at worst a hedge on an otherwise equity-laden portfolio.

Tips on What You May Need When Travelling – Travel Bags and Accessories

Many people enjoy travelling and will always do so at any available opportunity. Some people travel often because it is part of their job requirements. There are those who rarely travel but will gladly do so once in awhile especially during vacations. When leaving your home for a night or more, it is always very important to take along with you everything you need to make yourself as comfortable as possible for the period you are away from home. Also take with you everything you need to fulfill the purpose of your travel, such as things you may need if you are on official/ business trips. If you forget something you would have taken for your travel, it may not only frustrate you but also sour your spirit, You may even incur extra expenses because you may be forced to buy something you would otherwise not have bought. So it is important you plan ahead and decide what you need for your journey and what kind of suitcase or luggage bag will be most suitable for your journey. What you may need for your journey and the type of travel bag you will need depends on the length of time you will be away from home and also the mode of your travel. What you may need for a business trip will be different from your needs when going for a vacation. When you have made a good mental recollection of what you need for your travel and your mode of travel (travel by air or drive yourself to your destination), you then have to decide on the type of travel bag to pack your things in. You have to choose the type of suitcase or travel/ luggage bag that will give you the greatest flexibility and allows you to travel light.Traveling With Luggage Bags /Garment Bags for Official/ Business TripsMost people prefer to fly if they are travelling for official or business purposes such as attending business meetings or going for conferences. In this case you may be spending a night or two away from home, then your best choice of travel bag may be a carry-on bag with wheels or a messenger bag. The messenger bags and rolling bags are available in many sizes ranging from 13″ to 21″. Each of these travel bags lets you travel light because you can fit your computer into your travel bag. The unique design of each bag allows you to comfortably store your notebook/iPad in addition to clothing and personal accessories in the same bag. Each bag has special overnight luggage section that provides enough room for the clothes you need while on your journey. Each bag is perfect for short official/business trips. Each type of carry-on case has all necessary notebook case features including a zip-down workstation with storage for your mobile accessories, pen loops, key clip and business card holder. The rolling carry-on bags have smooth-rolling wheels and telescoping handle that makes the rolling case a perfect companion for the businessperson on the go.Some people may prefer to travel with a garment bag, computer /notebook carrying case or a multipurpose handbag (for women). The garment bag is great for protecting clothes while traveling. The clothes stay neat and wrinkle free. The garment bag has multiple pockets and can hold up to 4 garments. It has four interior pockets that provide enough room for shoes and accessories like cosmetic/makeup bags, toiletry bags and curling hot iron cases. It also has one exterior pocket where you can put the book you want to read on the plane or any other thing you want to be handy while you are on the plane. This garment bag is very stylish, lightweight and durable. It has full-length center zipper that gives you easy access to the inside. It also has full exterior zipper closure that ensures that everything inside the bag is secured. When you have packed everything you want inside the bag, you can fold the garment bag into two. The bi-fold bag has two handles that makes it easy to carry. It also has a metal hanging hook that allows you to hang it on a wall. You can then use your multi-purpose handbag or computer/notebook carrying case to carry your computer/iPad.Some other travelers may prefer to travel with an overnight bag. The overnight bag has zippered main closure with three zippered side pockets and two Velcro end pockets. It has adjustable shoulder strap and carrying handle. It also has a black linen inside lining that makes it great for wiping out and keeping clean.Travel Accessories- Snoozer – Travel Neck Pillow / Blanket in VeluraBeside the travel/ luggage bags that you need to pack everything you need for your journey, you may consider other travel accessories such as a luxurious Velura covered neck rest that not only carries a soft, easy care Velura 40″ x 60″ blanket inside, but also has an inflatable pillow that allows you to enjoy a warm and comfortable trip. The PVC inflatable pillow is easy to inflate and deflate and the blanket is so soft that it easily folds back into the pillow cover. This snoozer-travel neck pillow/blanket in Velura is a compact, easy to carry travel item that you can use to provide comfort for yourself on any journey. This travel accessory is ideal for business or recreational travelers.What You May Need When going on Family VacationMany families choose to travel by road when on a family vacation; Travelling together in a car is part of the close family experience that every family cherishes and long for every year. Preparing for this long travelling experience for the families can be a sweet challenge for parents, especially when the journey involves very young kids. The thought of how to keep them engaged and entertained all through the long journey can also be daunting.It is no brainer to say that you need suitcases to pack the family’s clothing and needs while on vacation, The challenge is what type of suitcases do you need. Do you need a suitcase for everyone in the family or do you need to put everyone’s clothing in a common suitcase? Depending on the number in the family and the ages of the kids, you may have a common suitcase for clothing and another for other accessories. Alternatively, each kid can pack his/her accessories in his/her backpack, while you have a common suitcase for everyone. In another arrangement, you can let everyone in the family use a garment bag to pack both his/her clothing and accessories. This is one of the “sweet-bitter” choices parents have to make.Use A Thermal Cooler Bag to Pack Enough Cold Drinks For Everyone While On The JourneyDepending on the length of the journey you might want to travel with enough cold drinks packed in a thermal cooler bag. The thermal lining of the cooler bags prevents the drinks from absorbing heat as such the drinks will remain cold for a very long time. The idea is for you not to stop to buy cold drinks each time any member of the family wants something cold to drink. Having sufficient cold drinks handy when you need them gives you enough driving time and also lets you stop only when you need to break the journey for any other thing other than just buying some cold drinks.Make Your Kids Comfortable With Kids’ Travel AccessoriesBesides having enough drinks handy for anyone who needs it during the journey, it can also be a challenge to keep the kids comfortable during a very long journey. You can keep your kids comfortable all through the journey by allowing them to use kids’ travel accessories such as travel buddies. Kids’ travel buddies are ultra soft neck pillows that allow kids to snuggle with their buddy while “visiting the land of dreams!” These buddies that are available in different animal characters are perfect for strollers, cars and any other place kids drop off to sleep.Scosche backSTAGE pro II Vehicle Mount for Tablet PCApart from providing cold drinks for your kids when they need them and making them (kids) comfortable while they sleep during the journey, keeping the kids engaged during the course of the journey is another challenge. Some parents allow the children to read their books during the journey, and play their video games when they are tired of reading. These are good ways to keep your kids engaged. Another way is to have them watch videos/movies on iPad while you drive. In this instance, backSTAGE pro II is very suitable. Use the backSTAGE pro II to securely and rugged mount your iPad 2 to the back of any headrest so that your children can enjoy hands free viewing of movies, apps, games while you drive. This device is ideal to keep your family entertained with ease when you are on a long journey. The backstage pro II has a charger that plugs directly into the headrest mount and provides a continuous charge to your iPad 2. It has wireless IR headphones for private listening and a USB port that supports flash drive use for viewing images.These are some of the things you need to consider when preparing for a business trip or family vacation, to ensure that you have the most comfortable journey whether you travel by air or travel by road with your family on a vacation.

Best in Class Finance Functions For Police Forces

Background

Police funding has risen by £4.8 billion and 77 per cent (39 per cent in real terms) since 1997. However the days where forces have enjoyed such levels of funding are over.

Chief Constables and senior management recognize that the annual cycle of looking for efficiencies year-on-year is not sustainable, and will not address the cash shortfall in years to come.
Facing slower funding growth and real cash deficits in their budgets, the Police Service must adopt innovative strategies which generate the productivity and efficiency gains needed to deliver high quality policing to the public.

The step-change in performance required to meet this challenge will only be achieved if the police service fully embraces effective resource management and makes efficient and productive use of its technology, partnerships and people.

The finance function has an essential role to play in addressing these challenges and supporting Forces’ objectives economically and efficiently.

Challenge

Police Forces tend to nurture a divisional and departmental culture rather than a corporate one, with individual procurement activities that do not exploit economies of scale. This is in part the result of over a decade of devolving functions from the center to the.divisions.

In order to reduce costs, improve efficiency and mitigate against the threat of “top down” mandatory, centrally-driven initiatives, Police Forces need to set up a corporate back office and induce behavioral change. This change must involve compliance with a corporate culture rather than a series of silos running through the organization.

Developing a Best in Class Finance Function

Traditionally finance functions within Police Forces have focused on transactional processing with only limited support for management information and business decision support. With a renewed focus on efficiencies, there is now a pressing need for finance departments to transform in order to add greater value to the force but with minimal costs.

1) Aligning to Force Strategy

As Police Forces need finance to function, it is imperative that finance and operations are closely aligned. This collaboration can be very powerful and help deliver significant improvements to a Force, but in order to achieve this model, there are many barriers to overcome. Finance Directors must look at whether their Force is ready for this collaboration, but more importantly, they must consider whether the Force itself can survive without it.

Finance requires a clear vision that centers around its role as a balanced business partner. However to achieve this vision a huge effort is required from the bottom up to understand the significant complexity in underlying systems and processes and to devise a way forward that can work for that particular organization.

The success of any change management program is dependent on its execution. Change is difficult and costly to execute correctly, and often, Police Forces lack the relevant experience to achieve such change. Although finance directors are required to hold appropriate professional qualifications (as opposed to being former police officers as was the case a few years ago) many have progressed within the Public Sector with limited opportunities for learning from and interaction with best in class methodologies. In addition cultural issues around self-preservation can present barriers to change.

Whilst it is relatively easy to get the message of finance transformation across, securing commitment to embark on bold change can be tough. Business cases often lack the quality required to drive through change and even where they are of exceptional quality senior police officers often lack the commercial awareness to trust them.

2) Supporting Force Decisions

Many Finance Directors are keen to develop their finance functions. The challenge they face is convincing the rest of the Force that the finance function can add value – by devoting more time and effort to financial analysis and providing senior management with the tools to understand the financial implications of major strategic decisions.

Maintaining Financial Controls and Managing Risk

Sarbanes Oxley, International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), Basel II and Individual Capital Assessments (ICA) have all put financial controls and reporting under the spotlight in the private sector. This in turn is increasing the spotlight on financial controls in the public sector.

A ‘Best in Class’ Police Force finance function will not just have the minimum controls to meet the regulatory requirements but will evaluate how the legislation and regulations that the finance function are required to comply with, can be leveraged to provide value to the organization. Providing strategic information that will enable the force to meet its objectives is a key task for a leading finance function.

3) Value to the Force

The drive for development over the last decade or so, has moved decision making to the Divisions and has led to an increase in costs in the finance function. Through utilizing a number of initiatives in a program of transformation, a Force can leverage up to 40% of savings on the cost of finance together with improving the responsiveness of finance teams and the quality of financial information. These initiatives include:

Centralization

By centralizing the finance function, a Police Force can create centers of excellence where industry best practice can be developed and shared. This will not only re-empower the department, creating greater independence and objectivity in assessing projects and performance, but also lead to more consistent management information and a higher degree of control. A Police Force can also develop a business partner group to act as strategic liaisons to departments and divisions. The business partners would, for example, advise on how the departmental and divisional commanders can meet the budget in future months instead of merely advising that the budget has been missed for the previous month.

With the mundane number crunching being performed in a shared service center, finance professionals will find they now have time to act as business partners to divisions and departments and focus on the strategic issues.

The cultural impact on the departments and divisional commanders should not be underestimated. Commanders will be concerned that:

o Their budgets will be centralized
o Workloads would increase
o There will be limited access to finance individuals
o There will not be on site support

However, if the centralized shared service center is designed appropriately none of the above should apply. In fact from centralization under a best practice model, leaders should accrue the following benefits:

o Strategic advice provided by business partners
o Increased flexibility
o Improved management information
o Faster transactions
o Reduced number of unresolved queries
o Greater clarity on service and cost of provision
o Forum for finance to be strategically aligned to the needs of the Force

A Force that moves from a de-centralized to a centralized system should try and ensure that the finance function does not lose touch with the Chief Constable and Divisional Commanders. Forces need to have a robust business case for finance transformation combined with a governance structure that spans operational, tactical and strategic requirements. There is a risk that potential benefits of implementing such a change may not be realized if the program is not carefully managed. Investment is needed to create a successful centralized finance function. Typically the future potential benefits of greater visibility and control, consistent processes, standardized management information, economies of scale, long-term cost savings and an empowered group of proud finance professionals, should outweigh those initial costs.

To reduce the commercial, operational and capability risks, the finance functions can be completely outsourced or partially outsourced to third parties. This will provide guaranteed cost benefits and may provide the opportunity to leverage relationships with vendors that provide best practice processes.

Process Efficiencies

Typically for Police Forces the focus on development has developed a silo based culture with disparate processes. As a result significant opportunities exist for standardization and simplification of processes which provide scalability, reduce manual effort and deliver business benefit. From simply rationalizing processes, a force can typically accrue a 40% reduction in the number of processes. An example of this is the use of electronic bank statements instead of using the manual bank statement for bank reconciliation and accounts receivable processes. This would save considerable effort that is involved in analyzing the data, moving the data onto different spreadsheet and inputting the data into the financial systems.

Organizations that possess a silo operating model tend to have significant inefficiencies and duplication in their processes, for example in HR and Payroll. This is largely due to the teams involved meeting their own goals but not aligning to the corporate objectives of an organization. Police Forces have a number of independent teams that are reliant on one another for data with finance in departments, divisions and headquarters sending and receiving information from each other as well as from the rest of the Force. The silo model leads to ineffective data being received by the teams that then have to carry out additional work to obtain the information required.

Whilst the argument for development has been well made in the context of moving decision making closer to operational service delivery, the added cost in terms of resources, duplication and misaligned processes has rarely featured in the debate. In the current financial climate these costs need to be recognized.

Culture

Within transactional processes, a leading finance function will set up targets for staff members on a daily basis. This target setting is an element of the metric based culture that leading finance functions develop. If the appropriate metrics of productivity and quality are applied and when these targets are challenging but not impossible, this is proven to result in improvements to productivity and quality.

A ‘Best in Class’ finance function in Police Forces will have a service focused culture, with the primary objectives of providing a high level of satisfaction for its customers (departments, divisions, employees & suppliers). A ‘Best in Class’ finance function will measure customer satisfaction on a timely basis through a metric based approach. This will be combined with a team wide focus on process improvement, with process owners, that will not necessarily be the team leads, owning force-wide improvement to each of the finance processes.

Organizational Improvements

Organizational structures within Police Forces are typically made up of supervisors leading teams of one to four team members. Through centralizing and consolidating the finance function, an opportunity exists to increase the span of control to best practice levels of 6 to 8 team members to one team lead / supervisor. By adjusting the organizational structure and increasing the span of control, Police Forces can accrue significant cashable benefit from a reduction in the number of team leads and team leads can accrue better management experience from managing larger teams.

Technology Enabled Improvements

There are a significant number of technology improvements that a Police Force could implement to help develop a ‘Best in Class’ finance function.

These include:

A) Scanning and workflow

Through adopting a scanning and workflow solution to replace manual processes, improved visibility, transparency and efficiencies can be reaped.

B) Call logging, tracking and workflow tool

Police Forces generally have a number of individuals responding to internal and supplier queries. These queries are neither logged nor tracked. The consequence of this is dual:

o Queries consume considerable effort within a particular finance team. There is a high risk of duplicated effort from the lack of logging of queries. For example, a query could be responded to for 30 minutes by person A in the finance team. Due to this query not being logged, if the individual that raised the query called up again and spoke to a different person then just for one additional question, this could take up to 20 minutes to ensure that the background was appropriately explained.

o Queries can have numerous interfaces with the business. An unresolved query can be responded against by up to four separate teams with considerable delay in providing a clear answer for the supplier.

The implementation of a call logging, tracking and workflow tool to document, measure and close internal and supplier queries combined with the set up of a central queries team, would significantly reduce the effort involved in responding to queries within the finance departments and divisions, as well as within the actual divisions and departments, and procurement.

C) Database solution

Throughout finance departments there are a significant number of spreadsheets utilized prior to input into the financial system. There is a tendency to transfer information manually from one spreadsheet to another to meet the needs of different teams.

Replacing the spreadsheets with a database solution would rationalize the number of inputs and lead to effort savings for the front line Police Officers as well as Police Staff.

D) Customize reports

In obtaining management information from the financial systems, police staff run a series of reports, import these into excel, use lookups to match the data and implement pivots to illustrate the data as required. There is significant manual effort that is involved in carrying out this work. Through customizing reports the outputs from the financial system can be set up to provide the data in the formats required through the click of a button. This would have the benefit of reduced effort and improved motivation for team members that previously carried out these mundane tasks.

In designing, procuring and implementing new technology enabling tools, a Police Force will face a number of challenges including investment approval; IT capacity; capability; and procurement.

These challenges can be mitigated through partnering with a third party service company with whom the investment can be shared, the skills can be provided and the procurement cycle can be minimized.

Conclusion

It is clear that cultural, process and technology change is required if police forces are to deliver both sustainable efficiencies and high quality services. In an environment where for the first time forces face real cash deficits and face having to reduce police officer and support staff numbers whilst maintaining current performance levels the current finance delivery models requires new thinking.

While there a number of barriers to be overcome in achieving a best in class finance function, it won’t be long before such a decision becomes mandatory. Those who are ahead of the curve will inevitably find themselves in a stronger position.